Modi government faces no confidence motion: How the numbers stack up 

Amid the widespread outrage in the country over the two-month old ethnic violence in Manipur, the opposition parties have collectively come forward asking PM Modi to speak on the issue in the Lok Sabha. The Opposition alliance India, comprising 26 Opposition parties, has moved a no-confidence motion in the Lok Sabha, submitting notices to halt all regular proceedings and address the issue of ethnic violence in the troubled northeastern state. The motion was moved by Congress’s Lok Sabha Deputy and North east leader Gaurav Gogoi and accepted by the Speaker Om Birla.

How does a No-Confidence Motion work?

In our parliamentary democracy, the government remains in power based on its majority support in the directly-elected House, known as the Lok Sabha. As per Article 75 (3) of the Indian Constitution, the Council of Ministers of the elected government is collectively responsible to the Lok Sabha.

The no-confidence motion serves as a mechanism to test this collective accountability. If any Member of Parliament observes that the government lacks the majority to demonstrate its responsibility to the Lok Sabha, they have the option to move a no-confidence motion (also known as a no-trust motion) against the government. To initiate this motion, the member needs the backing of at least 50 other colleagues. It is pertinent to note that this motion can only be introduced in the Lok Sabha.

After the initiation of a no-confidence motion, the Speaker of the House determines a date and time for its discussion on the floor. During the debate, MPs supporting the motion highlight the government’s flaws, and the Treasury Benches respond to these issues. The proceedings conclude with a vote. If the majority of MPs vote in favour of the motion, the Council of Ministers, including the Prime Minister, are obliged to resign from their positions.The time allocated for discussing the motion is based on the respective strengths of political parties in the House. To move the motion, an MP must submit a written notice before 10 am, which will be read out by the Speaker in the House. Once the motion is accepted, a period of 10 days is allotted for discussing it. If the discussion does not take place within this timeframe, the motion is considered to have failed.

What are the current numbers in the House?

The current strength of the BJP, along with other parties in the NDA coalition, is 303 in the lower House, which is well above the majority mark of 272. Together, the NDA alliance holds 331 seats in the Lok Sabha. In contrast, the INDIA opposition coalition has 114 MPs, while the ‘neutral’ parties, including YSRCP, BJD, and BRS, have 70 members in the House. Clearly, the current government enjoys a significant advantage in terms of numbers. Though the Opposition is likely to fail the numbers test, the no-confidence motion, it aims to utilise the debate to compel the government to discuss a crucial matter in the House.

Congress MP Gaurav Gogoi, who introduced the motion, acknowledged that the INDIA alliance is aware of its limited numbers in the Lok Sabha. However, he emphasised that the motion’s significance goes beyond mere numerical strength. It is about highlighting Manipur’s fight for justice. Gaurav Gogoi stated that the message they aim to convey is that even though Prime Minister Modi might have overlooked Manipur, the INDIA alliance stands with the people of Manipur during their time of sorrow and is actively advocating for their rights within the Parliament.

This motion is the first of such kind in the last 20 years,  and has disrupted the monsoon session of Parliament. 

The recently-established INDIA alliance, formed in Bengaluru on July 18, views the no-confidence motion as a significant advancement in their ongoing struggle against the BJP. “During our meeting on Monday morning, we agreed not to alter our approach in the Rajya Sabha but instead devised an alternative strategy for the Lok Sabha,” stated one of the leaders.

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