The intensification of the years-long conflict between Russia and Ukraine has triggered the greatest military crisis in Europe in decades. Russia recently declared a full-fledged war on Ukraine. Months before the situation deteriorated, Moscow had begun amassing troops on the Ukrainian border, with at least 150,000 Russian troops surrounding the country from three sides. So, just how did things deteriorate between the two countries?
The tension escalated in January 2021 when the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy pressed US President Joe Biden to let Ukraine join NATO forces. The action angered Russia and it sent troops to the Ukrainian border claiming they were involved in ‘training exercises.’
In 2014 as well, Russian-Ukrainian relations had deteriorated after the latter ousted its pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovych following months of protests against his rule. Russia responded by backing rebels in the East and taking control of Crimea.
If we look back at history, both these countries were part of the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine gained independence. The two continued to have deep social and cultural ties. However, the relationship went sore after the invasion of Crimea in 2014 leaving Ukraine in fear of war with Russia for almost eight years.
In 2014, Russia signed the Minsk Peace Accord to halt the dispute in East Ukraine. However, the hostilities have continued. The West has called the Russian move to send “peacekeepers” to the region as a strategy by Moscow to occupy foreign territory. Russia is also fearful of the fact that Ukraine might use military force to reclaim the Crimean peninsula and those areas in Eastern Ukraine under the control of the Russian-backed separatists.
Ukraine’s eagerness to be a member of the NATO is also a major irritant in relations between the two countries. NATO currently has 30 members- its membership having doubled during Putin’s term. What has probably added to Putin’s insecurity is the fact that most of the new members are from the former Soviet Union. Currently, there are 30 countries in NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization), a strategic alliance formed in 1949 that promotes cooperation among each other in matters related to security and defence issues. Russia sees NATO as a threat to its borders and impacting its influence. Five NATO states that border Russia including former Soviet states like Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania. Putin also wants NATO to back its military presence in Eastern Europe. The military presence is, however, a rotational tour of a series of exercises with about 100 serving in Lithuania, 60 in Estonia and Latvia (combined).
Putin is also concerned with NATO’s missile defence presence in Romania and with a similar base (under development) in Poland. He feels that weapons’ deployment could pose a threat to Russia. If Ukraine joins the NATO forces, it will be a threat to Russia as evident from NATO’s motto, ‘an attack on one member country is an attack on all member countries.’
Will Putin get the legal guarantee from the US? Will he be able to wage war against those countries that might support Ukraine? Will Ukraine join NATO? All the answers are likely to unfold gradually!
